The Policy Blender

In an effort to remain impartial I decided to write an (unofficial) campaign update. I had determined to make this an official campaign update once the phoney war was over and the election was announced.

I started thinking, and chuckled, then smugly grinned as I thought about what I might write about the Labour Party campaign so far. So, I decided that it might be more fun to do it from my own slightly less impartial perspective. I'll try and be critical of the Tories too, and might even mention the LibDems, as someone has to.

So, may I present, my inaugural,


One-eyed (unofficial) campaign update

Labour

The Government last week continued their intensive efforts to beat away their hard won 'Mondeo Man' voter by announcing a budget that benefits everyone but him. They are also today announcing measures that will scare off his previously courted 'progressive-liberal woman' wife with Blair addressing a Christian group in the hope of making "faith an election issue". This after dismissing Tory attempts (below) to make abortion an election issue, on the grounds that religion and politics don't mix, seems pretty bloody spectacular brass-neckiness, even for the man that brought us our first "faith-based war" since the crusades.

However, the political logistics around the faith issue provides a welcome departure from the central Labour campaign that can be summed up as "Tory = Evil". Last week Gordon Brown laughed as Tony Blair failed to find a convincing line for the campaign slogan "£35bn of Tory Cuts" after it emerged that the Tories were actually planning to increase spending, not cut it.

"Sources close to the Government" have branded the Tories' new Gypsy policy - that they should be subject to the same planning laws as everyone else - "racist". This, as it emerges that Labour candidates for the seat to be vacated by Paul "tomorrow Soweto" Boateng are to be selected on the grounds of their skin colour.

Home Office Minister, Baroness Scotland, has challenged the Tories to come out in full support of the Government's proposals for ID Cards. This is a carefully constructed bear-trap, that seeks to paint the Tories as either U-turners or weak on crime. As part of the Government's continued efforts to be "tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime", Department for Pensions Minister Chris Pond was arrested and bailed for criminal damage.

Aside from slur and spin, the Labour campaign has been relatively quiet so far, certainly not the big media blitz and razzmatazz everyone expected upon hearing that mixmaster Campbell was back at the decks. Last month's election slogan "Forwards Not Backwards" has conspicuously failed to be mentioned by any Cabinet Minister and has fallen off the press radar, even that of the doting BBC. Momentum may have initially stalled with the row over the posters depicting the two leading Jewish Tories as flying pigs, and then, last week when the £35bn cuts claim was revealed to be bollocks. But a slicker New Labour machine would have sailed through all that. Any political spin machine that can turn the Deputy Prime Minister lamping someone in the middle of an election campaign into a PR victory showing that they are 'in touch with the people' should be making a lot of the Tories' fuddy-duddyness and the LibDems' unelectability. Leading to the question - what is wrong at New Labour? Is it a carefully crafted campaign to devalue their own past electioneering efforts in order to seem as cynical and apathetic as the electorate; or have they just failed to locate their arse from their elbow? Time will tell, but meantime, the Tories are making hay whilst the sun is not shining from Blair's backside.


Conservatives

The biggest political surprise in the last few weeks has been that, given the open goal left by the Labour party by their bizarre 'little voice' approach to campaigning, is that the Tories haven't yet committed collective electoral suicide. Granted, there was a little hiccup when the candidate chosen to battle Tony Blair in Sedgefield resigned following comments about "creative destruction" of public services. But that little slip of honesty aside, the campaign seems to be, wait for it, slick. Yes, the Tories are running a slick campaign for the first time since 1979 when Thatcher picked up the newborn calf for the cameras.

What continues to amaze is that they don't seem to be letting it get to their heads either. There appears to be a work ethic emanating from Central Office that exudes the very realistic aura of "we might not win this time, but we'll push 'em close".

The amazing outbreak of normality at Central Office can be traced back to the arrival of Aussie Spin-miester, current number three in the world spin rankings behind Rove and Campbell, Lynton Crosby. Crosby steered John Howard to victory in last year's Australian elections after many people had written him off. Howard (John) was helped last year by an inept and disastrous campaign by the Australian version of the Labour party. His British namesake hopes for the symmetry to continue, and for the Aussie boy-wonder to work his magic 'up-over'.

Luck has played a part in the Tories current run of success. This is the first campaign in thirty years that Margaret Thatcher has not played a substantial role. The luck is, because she's simply too old to get out and about for the Tories, and that Labour have determined that sliming the old dear for the third election in a row may not win them much sympathy under the slogan of "Forward Not Back".

Policy wise, the Tories have shown that they can learn from the best. Rove successfully brought the religion issue into the 2004 Presidential campaign, with superb results for the conservative base. Crosby and Howard are following that thinking, and last week pushed the issue of lowering the limit for abortions from twenty-four to twenty weeks. This is no stab in the dark, they realise that Blair is a fan of the moral high-ground, and protective of his pious image that won the Home Counties and Daily Mail readers over in '97 and '01. They also know that if he pushes his religion as an electoral asset, he is likely to turn-off voters referred to as the 'metropolitan elite' - these were the key prize in '97 - the organic food eating 4x4 drivers of Islington that came to symbolise new Labour. With core Labour supporters already expected to stay at home or vote LibDem because of the Iraq war, the Tories hope that pushing Blair into sounding more like Bush on religion, his New Labour luvvies will leave him too - meanwhile his Christian goody-goody act only stands to impress the people that will probably never forgive him for banning fox-hunting and generally shitting on the countryside.

All this hints at a 'strategy', something that historically the Tories have never been able to manage during a general election campaign. Well, maybe never a 'winning strategy'. Previous Conservative election victories have been based mainly on circumstances (e.g. the winter of discontent) for winning power or on the opposition (or lack of it - see Kinnock) in retaining power. So watch out for the traditional high profile deviations from the party line that the Tories pride themselves on. The Tory Old Guard are like the men in at the top during the last days of the old RFU, the men famously described as 'Old Farts' by Will Carling, then England captain. The Old Farts in the Tory Party may well take pride in their lack of professionalism, but Crosby, as an Aussie, will know it's the Woodward-era of professionalism that won the World Cup for England. He's hoping that professionalism wins out, and the winning mentality is installed. Whether the young Tories, as their rugby playing counterparts did, will have to face "The Tour of Hell" before they are sufficiently blooded to become world beaters, we'll just have to wait and see.


The Liberal Democrats

I promised to write something about the Liberal Democrat campaign, so I will.

The LibDems always make great ground from the fact that they never have to fully explain themselves or come up with anything practical because they can be confident that they won't be chosen to test their theories. Widely derided for this by other politicians and the press, they actually should be applauded. Their consistent electoral failure is declining, therefore, they rightly point to their dismal performance as 'steady improvement'. This, whilst all the while hiding behind the charge that 'the first-past-the-post system is unfair' but using their electoral anonymity to be all things to all men is a cunning plan worthy of Baldric himself.

With this in mind, the LibDems surprised a few commentators today, when they released their own 'Ten Pledges'. At first glance, they look like they may even relate to polices, however, I can faithfully reproduce them from an internal LibDem policy document found written in drunken scrawl on the back of a box of fags on the 16:58 to Inverness:

Ten Pledges to the Electorate:

• We are not Labour or the Tories
• If you like yellow, vote for us
• We said no about the war all along
• Kennedy is a name associated with strong leaders
• Go on vote for the little ginger guy
• Go on, it's not like he's Blair or that other bloke
• He's going to have a baby soon, you know
• Ahh, lickle bay-be
• It'll have it's daddy's cheeky smile
• Go on, please.

Posted by Ben on Tuesday, March 22, 2005 at 12:56 pm | Permalink