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Rudy can’t fail?

Some might say that Rudolf Giuliani is the Republican dream ticket. He’s certainly their best chance of holding on to the White House in the aftermath of the Bush years.

Giuliani has given his strongest hint yet that he will run for the Oval office in 2008 by filing a statement of candidacy with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on Monday. Though no announcement has been made and there’s no mention of the statement on his website. It seems the former New York Mayor is keen for this move to be interpreted as keeping his options open as he continues his diverse tour of US states.

Rudy’s CV is multifaceted and represents a refreshing change from the evangelical campaigns of the past. In summary:

- He’s never condemned abortion
- He’s tough on terror
- He’s tough on crime
- He’s pro Gay rights
- He’s not a Democrat

The traits that make Giuliani unpopular with GOP Grandees may well prove to be the hook that wins back some liberal states come election time. However for this reason a Giuliani candidacy would represent a gamble – will his appeal to liberal floaters destabilise his base? Rudy would be wise to employ Karl Rove’s ‘dog whistle’ strategy in red states to limit any potential backlash.

With Senator McCain having made the early running, it’s not even certain that Giuliani will enter the race for nomination. What is certain, however, is that if he gets the candidacy the normal rules will be thrown out of the window. The 2006 campaign will be much more colourful than a choice between Barack and white.